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Husky posted an update
Looks like Job security to me!
So I have an unhealthily love of graphs – and here’s an article that knows me. Aviation and Charts.
The author says the pilot shortage is shrinking but let’s look at Exhibit 2. The author makes some assumptions that I wouldn’t. Firstly, look at the mainline demand growth between 2023-2033 – while that looks impressive it actually assumes an anemic 2.5% growth. For comparison, the bureau of labor statistics assume 5% growth for the pilots. Second check out military hires – 10,500 in 10 years. That is nearly the entire USAF and USN fixed wing production for that period. That’s unrealistic, someone has to be a general, people lose their medical or go into business. Finally some of those faces are double counted, being military folks who start in the regionals.
Adjusting the authors assumptions, the ‘Merica needs to make 91,500 ATPs IN ADDITION to military pilot (who yes also need to get their ATPs).
If you’re wondering – how many ATPs do we make in a given year (including military folks getting their ATPs). Well we’ve only gotten to that 9k+ number a few times in the last decade.
So to phrase it differently. Imagine the most gangbuster pilot hiring of the past decade…It has to be that aggressive every year for the next decade.
oliverwyman.com
North American Pilot Shortage Shows 23% Smaller Gap In 2032
The North American pilot shortage shows the gap shrinking with more pilot certifications and less demand from regional carriers. Details in our 2023 report.